The Texas governor race has become increasingly competitive as early voting approaches. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott faces Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa and Libertarian Pat Dixon in the Nov. 3 election.
Recent polls offer no clear consensus. Some show Abbott narrowly ahead, while another places Hinojosa slightly in front. The differences remain within each poll’s margin of error.
Texas Governor Race Polls Show a Close Contest
A Marist University poll conducted Oct. 8-11 found Abbott leading Hinojosa 49% to 45% among likely voters. The poll carried a 4.9-point margin of error.
A ReconMR/Siena University poll found a smaller gap. Abbott received 48%, while Hinojosa received 47% among likely voters.
Meanwhile, an October University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll placed Hinojosa ahead 49% to 48%. That one-point difference also fell within the survey’s margin of error.
The mixed results suggest turnout will play a major role. They also represent a significant change from Abbott’s 2022 victory, when he defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by nearly 11 percentage points.
Abbott Seeks a Fourth Term
Abbott has served as governor since 2015. Before that, he served as Texas attorney general and as a justice on the Texas Supreme Court.
His campaign emphasizes property tax reductions, border security, public safety and private school vouchers. Abbott also supports ending school property taxes for homeowners.
His proposals would place tighter limits on property appraisal increases. He also wants stronger voter approval requirements before local governments can raise taxes.
On immigration, Abbott continues to promote Operation Lone Star. The state program funds border barriers, law enforcement deployments and efforts to arrest unauthorized migrants.
Abbott has also defended the state’s new private school voucher program. Texas lawmakers dedicated $1 billion to the program for its first two years.
Hinojosa Focuses on Education and Affordability
Hinojosa is serving her fifth term in the Texas House. She previously served as president of the Austin Independent School District Board of Trustees.
Public education has become a central part of her campaign. Hinojosa opposes private school vouchers and supports higher teacher pay. She also wants to end standardized testing and state takeovers of local school districts.
Hinojosa has said she would replace Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath with an educator. She also supports additional school safety investments.
On affordability, Hinojosa has proposed sending each Texas household a one-time $1,500 payment from the state’s savings account. She also wants to eliminate corporate subsidies and use the savings to reduce property taxes.
Both candidates have addressed concerns about large data centers. Abbott wants companies to fund their electricity and water infrastructure. Hinojosa supports a temporary moratorium on new projects until lawmakers establish stronger protections.
Dixon, the Libertarian candidate, supports lower state spending and reduced sales taxes. He also opposes government tax incentives for businesses and data centers.
Campaign Spending Reflects High Stakes
Abbott continues to hold a financial advantage. His campaign raised more than $20 million between July 1 and Sept. 24, according to state campaign finance reports.
Hinojosa raised approximately $13.3 million during the same period. Abbott reported $18.2 million in cash on hand, compared with Hinojosa’s $4 million.
However, Abbott also spent heavily. His campaign used nearly $70 million during the reporting period, while Hinojosa spent about $12.1 million.
The spending underscores the race’s importance. Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990. Abbott is seeking to extend three decades of Republican control of the governor’s office.
Early Voting Begins Oct. 19
Early voting runs from Monday, Oct. 19, through Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
Registered voters may cast an early ballot at any early voting location in their county. The deadline for election officials to receive most mail-ballot applications is Oct. 23.
Polling locations, identification requirements and registration information are available through VoteTexas.gov.
The next governor will influence education, property taxes, border policy and the state budget. With polls showing a close contest, participation across Texas communities could determine the outcome.