A disorganized cluster of storms in the Atlantic Ocean just east of the Leeward Islands has been named “Potential Tropical Cyclone Six” (PTC Six) by the National Hurricane Center. The storm will move into the eastern Caribbean Tuesday, then track over the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba before approaching South Florida this weekend.
The storm is ill-defined, with no center of circulation clearly identified. Because of this, the uncertainty in the forecast is relatively high. However, a model consensus has been very consistent, putting a storm into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Spaghetti plots are tightly packed, indicating that the various forecast models are in close agreement regarding the storm’s track.
PTC Six is projected to become and stay a weak tropical storm. If it does make tropical storm strength, it would be named “Fred”. It will likely not become a hurricane. Currently, it is located in an area with very dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere, which will hinder any significant development in the short term. As it approaches Cuba, Florida, and the eastern Gulf, it will enter an area with elevated wind shear, which will also keep its strength low.