The Texas Senate race remains highly competitive as voters prepare to choose a successor to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. Republican Ken Paxton, Democrat James Talarico and Libertarian Ted Brown will appear on the Nov. 3 ballot.
Recent polls show Talarico holding a narrow advantage over Paxton. However, the results remain close enough for either major-party candidate to win.
Latest Texas Senate Race Polls Show Narrow Margins
A Marist University poll conducted Oct. 8-11 found Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45% among likely voters. The difference fell within the poll’s 4.9-point margin of error.
Talarico received support from 52% of likely independent voters. Still, 53% of likely voters said they expected Paxton to win, regardless of their preferred candidate.
A separate University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey placed Talarico ahead 50% to 47%. Other recent surveys have given the Democrat leads ranging from two to six points.
The UT survey found Talarico leading among Latino voters, women and residents of urban and suburban communities. Paxton held stronger support among men and rural voters.
Those divisions place Houston, San Antonio, Dallas-Fort Worth and other population centers at the heart of the contest. Turnout among Latino voters could also influence the final result.
Paxton and Talarico Offer Different Records
Paxton has served as Texas attorney general since 2015. He previously represented North Texas in the Texas House and state Senate.
As attorney general, Paxton led conservative legal challenges involving immigration, abortion, environmental regulations and LGBTQ+ policies. He has also emphasized support for President Donald Trump, border enforcement and the oil and gas industry.
Talarico is serving his fourth term in the Texas House. The Austin Democrat previously taught middle school in San Antonio.
His campaign has centered on affordability, health care and government corruption. Talarico also opposes Trump’s tariffs, arguing that they increase costs for families and Texas businesses.
On border policy, Talarico supports adding Border Patrol agents and immigration judges. He also favors expanded surveillance technology and targeted immigration enforcement.
Brown, the Libertarian nominee, has promoted smaller government, free trade and reduced federal taxation. Although polling places him well behind the leading candidates, his support could matter in a close election.
Candidates Enter the Final Campaign Stretch
Talarico addressed abortion, energy, immigration and government spending during an Oct. 14 CNN town hall in Fort Worth. The event included Democratic, Republican and independent voters.
Paxton received an invitation to participate but did not respond, according to CNN. Talarico has repeatedly requested a debate, but no event had been scheduled as of Oct. 15.
Paxton and Republican groups have portrayed Talarico as too liberal for Texas. Meanwhile, Talarico has questioned Paxton’s record and focused heavily on public integrity.
The candidates are also competing in an unusually expensive race. National organizations view the seat as important to the battle for control of the U.S. Senate.
Voting Begins Oct. 19
The election carries historic implications for both parties. Democrats have not won a statewide Texas race since 1994. Republicans are seeking to continue more than three decades of statewide electoral success.
Early voting begins Monday, Oct. 19, and continues through Friday, Oct. 30. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3. The deadline for election officials to receive most mail-ballot applications is Oct. 23.
Registered voters may cast an early ballot at any early voting location within their county. Polling places and registration information are available through VoteTexas.gov.
With narrow polling margins and major differences between the candidates, turnout will determine the next chapter of Texas representation in Washington.