November 4, 9 a.m.
Potential Storm Eighteen has become a tropical depression over the southwest Caribbean. Hurricane watches and warnings have been issued for portions of Cuba and the Cayman islands. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael later today and a hurricane by Wednesday.
November 4, 8 a.m.
Potential Storm Eighteen will continue to strengthen over the southwest Caribbean, and will likely become a named tropical storm later today. This system is forecast to drift northeast, before turning northwestward towards Jamaica
and Cuba. Heavy rain, wind, and flooding is expected for these areas as the system intensifies into a hurricane later this week and makes landfall in far western Cuba. The official track brings the system into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend where some uncertainty still remains in the track.
We are also monitoring a low chance of tropical development north of Hispaniola this week. This system would possibly develop later in the week, and would stay far enough away from Potential Storm Eighteen.
November 3, 6 p.m.
The tropical wave in the southern Caribbean has quickly organized and become Potential Storm Eighteen Sunday afternoon. This storm will likely become the next named storm, Rafael, within the next 24 hours. The storm will then track north through the Caribbean, passing by Jamaica and the Cayman Islands as a tropical storm or category one hurricane early this week. Then the storm is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico midweek, potentially as a hurricane. Beyond that, there is too much uncertainty in the long-term forecast to pinpoint where the storm will go or how strong it could be later this week and/or weekend. For now, the entire gulf coast should begin monitoring the situation. It is still too early to forecast any impact quite yet.
November 3, 10 a.m.
Odds are increasing that we’ll see our next named storm in the Caribbean early next week. The National Hurricane Center currently has a disturbance in the western Caribbean tagged with an 80% chance of development by Tuesday and a 90% chance by next weekend. Models are in fairly good agreement that any potential storm would drift north into the Gulf of Mexico, but beyond that point models diverge. A landfall in Texas is an unlikely outcome, as both models and history (we’ve never had a November hurricane make landfall in Texas) are on our side, but we’re still far enough out that I won’t fully rule out that possibility.
We’ll continue to monitor it in the coming days as the storm forms and models come in to better agreement. If the storm makes landfall in anywhere in the Gulf coast it would likely be roughly 1 week from today.
November 2, 11 a.m.
A disorganized area of low pressure in the Caribbean is now up to an 80% chance of Tropical Development over the next week. Models are in fairly good agreement about the potential storm lifting north, eventually making it’s way into the Gulf of Mexico. Beyond that point there is still a good deal of model discrepancy, so we’ll be keeping an eye on it, but the odds of trouble in Texas are low.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, subtropical storm Patty has formed and is no threat to the United States.
November 1, 8 a.m.
Broad low pressure in the western Caribbean now has a 70% chance of development according to the National Hurricane Center. For now, there remains some model disagreement on the eventual path of any potential storm, with some models bringing a storm to Florida, and others suggesting a landfall in Mexico. So while an eventual landfall location is far from set in stone, we have over a week to keep an eye on this potential storm.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic we have two other areas the NHC is monitoring, both with a low chance of development.
