November 6, 12 p.m.
Rafael has intensified to Cat 3 strength before making landfall in Cuba. It should make landfall during the afternoon Wednesday bringing life threatening storm surge, damaging winds, and flash flooding to western Cuba. It should emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a Cat. 2 on Thursday.
November 6, 9 a.m.
Rafael has reached Category 2 intensity. It is not out of the question that Rafael could reach Category 3 status before reaching Cuba on Wednesday. Flooding rain, damaging winds and a storm surge of 6-10 feet just east of
the point of landfall can be expected. Rafael will then enter the Gulf of Mexico, but there is still some uncertainty of where this storm will track over the Gulf.
We are also monitoring a low risk for tropical development in the northeast Caribbean toward the end of the week into this weekend.
November 5, 7 p.m.
Rafael has intensified into a Cat. 1 hurricane with max sustained winds of 75 mph. Rafael should move into the Gulf as a hurricane Wednesday into Thursday. The path becomes a bit more uncertain as it moves into the Gulf. Most of our models have it turning towards the central Gulf coast Friday. It does look like Rafael will weaken as it gets closer to land as wind shear and dry air increase.
November 5, 8 a.m.
Rafael remains a tropical storm as it nears Jamaica on Tuesday. Rafael is expected to intensify into a hurricane later today, likely reaching category 2 hurricane status. Rafael will then make landfall in western Cuba, bringing heavy rain, strong winds, and storm surge. Rafael is then expected to weaken as it enters the Gulf, where uncertainty in its track remains. Regardless, enhanced wind shear in the Gulf will lead to Rafael likely being only a tropical storm by the time it would make landfall anywhere in the Gulf.
Elsewhere, we are continuing to monitor a low chance of tropical development in the northeast Caribbean later this week. Interests in the Bahamas and South Florida will need to closely monitor the progress of this area.
November 4, 3 p.m.
Tropical Depression 18 just got the upgrade to Tropical Storm Rafael over the central Caribbean Sea. It is now predicted to become a category 2 hurricane before making a landfall over western Cuba on Wednesday. While it may enter the Gulf as a hurricane, a combination of high wind shear, dry air, and lower water temperatures are expected to knock the intensity down as it traverses the Gulf waters. The path over the Gulf of Mexico remains uncertain, but the two most likely scenarios are either a path westward toward Mexico or a path toward the north-central Gulf Coast. Impacts to Texas cannot be ruled out at this time, but if it were to reach our shores it would likely be as a weakened tropical storm or tropical depression.
