Houston Independent School District expects to enroll about 160,000 students during the 2026-27 school year, nearly 9,000 fewer than last year. The HISD enrollment decline is more than twice the loss administrators projected while building the district’s budget.

State-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles disclosed the estimate Tuesday during a Texas Senate Education Committee hearing. HISD had more than 159,000 students at its latest count, he said.

HISD Enrollment Decline Exceeds Projection

HISD reported 168,810 students during the official October 2025 enrollment count. District leaders expected enrollment to fall by approximately 4,000 students this year, bringing the total to about 164,800.

Instead, the district now expects enrollment to reach approximately 160,000. That would represent a year-over-year decline of nearly 8,800 students.

The final figure could change. Texas public school districts submit their official enrollment numbers to the state following an Oct. 31 count.

HISD’s student population often increases during the opening months of the school year. However, the latest estimate indicates that any late enrollment gains will not close the gap.

The district had approximately 155,600 students on Sept. 4. That was 9,691 fewer students than it had on a similar date in September 2025, according to records reviewed by the Houston Chronicle.

Lower Enrollment Creates Budget Pressure

Texas distributes much of its public education funding based on student attendance. Consequently, an enrollment decline can quickly reduce a district’s available revenue.

HISD expected to lose about $50 million in state funding based on its original projection of 4,000 fewer students. The district has not released a complete estimate for the larger decline.

Miles told lawmakers that HISD’s academic reform model remains financially sustainable. He said the district can reduce purchased services and staffing as enrollment falls.

“You have to be very fiscally responsible, and you cannot pay for all things,” Miles said during the hearing, according to Houston Public Media.

HISD has an estimated fund balance of $700 million. Miles said that figure remains above the approximately $550 million needed to cover 90 days of operations.

However, the district has ended recent fiscal years with spending exceeding revenue under state-appointed leadership.

Campuses Face Staffing and Program Cuts

HISD began reducing campus spending in September through its annual “leveling” process. That process adjusts staffing and budgets based on actual enrollment.

Some employees may be reassigned to other campuses. Other positions could be eliminated as schools bring spending in line with student counts.

Lamar High School faces a shortfall exceeding $500,000. School leaders told families that the cuts could affect choir, debate and support services.

T.H. Rogers School is losing an assistant principal and librarian through reassignments, according to information obtained by the Texas Tribune.

HISD has not publicly identified every affected campus. It also has not disclosed the total number of positions facing elimination or reassignment.

Why Are Fewer Students Attending HISD?

Miles said districts across Greater Houston are also experiencing enrollment declines. He cited lower birth rates, immigration trends and other regional changes.

Charter schools, private schools and homeschooling options also compete with traditional public school districts. Texas’ new education voucher program may contribute to further movement between schools.

A recent report found that more than 1,200 former HISD students used vouchers for private education or homeschooling this year.

However, a University of Houston analysis found that HISD’s losses accelerated after the state takeover began in 2023. The largest declines occurred at New Education System campuses, which operate under Miles’ reform model.

Miles disputed the suggestion that the takeover caused the decline. He pointed to similar percentage losses in Pasadena, Alief and Aldine school districts.

The official October count will provide a clearer picture of HISD’s enrollment and financial position. Families should monitor campus communications as the district finalizes staffing, programs and budgets for the remainder of the school year.