NASA has provided a new update on asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock once thought to pose a minimal threat to Earth. The latest calculations show the asteroid is now slightly more likely to impact the Moon—though the odds remain low.
Initially discovered in December 2024 by astronomers using a telescope in the Chilean desert, 2024 YR4 had a very slim chance of colliding with Earth in 2032. However, NASA has now reduced that already small possibility to a near-negligible 0.004%.
In a twist, scientists report that the asteroid’s chances of striking the Moon on December 22, 2032, have increased—from 1.7% to 3.8%. This new assessment is based on refined tracking data from several observatories, including the powerful James Webb Space Telescope.
Still, NASA emphasized that there’s a 96.2% probability the asteroid will miss the Moon entirely. Even in the unlikely event of an impact, it would not affect the Moon’s orbit.
Infrared imaging from the Webb telescope has also helped scientists better understand the asteroid’s size, which is estimated to be between 53 to 67 meters—roughly the height of a 10-story building.
Since its discovery, dozens of other near-Earth objects have traveled closer to Earth than the Moon. Many of these small bodies either passed by unnoticed or burned up in Earth’s atmosphere without incident.
Although a lunar impact remains unlikely, scientists say it could present a rare and valuable opportunity. “It would be a great experiment and a perfect opportunity,” said Professor Mark Burchell, a space science expert at the University of Kent, in an interview with New Scientist.
“Telescopes would certainly be able to observe it—and possibly even binoculars,” he added.
NASA and the James Webb Space Telescope are scheduled to monitor 2024 YR4 again next month for more data and to continue refining the asteroid’s predicted path.
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