When you step outside Thursday it will suddenly feel like spring again as a weekend rainmaker approaches.
Mild and muggy Gulf air returns Thursday morning and will keep temperatures hovering around 60 at sunrise. Widespread low clouds are expected, but the winds should be strong enough to prevent dense fog. Despite the clouds blocking out sunshine for much of the day, temperatures will still manage to climb into the mid 70s. With all the added moisture and upper air disturbances around, a light rain shower is possible anytime during the day. The same basic weather pattern will hold for Friday, then rain chances climb even higher for the weekend.
What weather should we prepare for this weekend?
It will remain mild, humid, and cloudy with growing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Sea fog will also be likely along the upper Texas coastline. Saturday brings a 70% chance for showers and thunderstorms, and the higher rain chances (and higher rain amounts) will depend on where a weak front stalls out in Southeast Texas. We have low confidence right now on where that will occur, so stay tuned. Sunday’s rain chance is also at 70%, and this time there will be equal chances all over Southeast Texas as an upper level storm blows through the state and reactivates rain near and behind the front.
Are we expecting any severe weather or flooding?
We still don’t see a signal for severe weather, but higher rain totals are possible on Saturday wherever the front stalls out. This could cause a quick 1-3″ of rain to fall in a narrow band, and where that happens street flooding is possible.
What’s the early weather outlook for Valentine’s Day?
At this time we are expect fair weather with a morning low near 40 and a daytime high near 70. A mixture of sunshine and clouds are expected as our next rainy weather system approaches.
Are we done with freezes for this winter?
Probably not. While we don’t have any freezes currently in our 10 day forecast for Houston, we do think a frost and even light freeze is possible in Southeast Texas on Tuesday morning. Temperatures in Houston will likely drop into the mid 30s, which is cold enough to put frost on the ground and rooftops. We continue to see signs of a weather pattern change coming around Valentine’s Day that could allow more arctic air to push down the Plains and into Texas during the second half of February. Stay tuned!
