WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, a historian known for correctly forecasting 9 out of the last 10 U.S. presidential elections, has announced his prediction for the 2024 race. According to Lichtman, Vice President Kamala Harris is his choice to reclaim the White House.
Lichtman, who developed a unique system based on thirteen “keys” or true-false questions, says these indicators help measure the strength and performance of the White House party. His prediction was first reported by The New York Times.
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Lichtman, a distinguished professor at American University in Washington, D.C., holds a Ph.D. in modern American history from Harvard University. He is well-known for his election forecasts and has authored numerous books and academic articles. Lichtman has also served as an expert witness in civil and voting rights cases.
What are the 13 keys?
Lichtman’s 13 keys assess factors such as the state of the economy, the presence of scandals, and the charisma of the incumbent party’s candidate. Some of the keys include:
- Whether the White House party gained seats during midterms
- Whether the sitting president is seeking re-election
- The strength of the economy, both short and long-term
- Whether there is a major foreign policy success or failure
- The presence of a charismatic candidate
In Lichtman’s analysis, eight of these keys currently favor Harris, while only three support former President Donald Trump. However, he acknowledged the possibility of changes in foreign policy, particularly regarding the Biden administration’s involvement in the Gaza conflict.
“If foreign policy keys flip, it could affect the outcome,” Lichtman said. However, with only five negative keys, he still predicts a Harris victory.
Track record
Lichtman’s prediction method has been remarkably accurate over the last several decades, with the exception of the 2000 election when George W. Bush defeated Al Gore. Despite the close race that year, Lichtman’s system has otherwise correctly anticipated every presidential winner since the 1980s.
He concluded by urging voters to take part in the upcoming election, saying, “The outcome is up to you, so get out and vote.”
