The 2024 presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is neck-and-neck across key battleground states, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll released Thursday. Harris currently holds a narrow lead of 49%-48% among voters across seven swing states, but 14% remain undecided, indicating the potential for significant shifts.
Key state breakdowns:
- North Carolina: Harris holds a slight 48%-47% lead in a CNN/SSRS survey, though other polls, including a Fox News survey, show Trump ahead by 49%-47%. Trump maintains a 1.2-point advantage in the state according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
- Georgia: Trump is leading with a 48%-47% margin in a CNN/SSRS poll and a wider 51%-46% in a CES survey. Polls from Marist and the Washington Post-Schar School show varied results, but Trump averages a 1.8-point lead.
- Pennsylvania: The race is effectively tied, with both candidates polling at 48% in recent Fox News and CNN/SSRS polls. FiveThirtyEight’s average gives Trump a slim 0.4-point lead.
- Michigan: Harris holds an edge in most surveys, including 51%-46% in a CES poll. However, a Washington Post poll shows Trump leading by 47%-45%. Harris maintains a 1.1-point lead in the state’s polling average.
- Wisconsin: Harris is up 50%-47% in the CES poll and 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS survey. Trump holds a 49%-48% lead in Emerson’s survey, with Harris leading by 0.7 points in the polling average.
- Nevada: Harris leads 48%-47% in an Emerson poll and 51%-47% in CES data, while Trump is narrowly ahead in a CNN/SSRS survey. Harris’ lead in polling averages is 0.1 points.
- Arizona: Trump holds a 51%-47% lead in a CES survey and maintains a 2.2-point advantage in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Background:
Harris secured the Democratic nomination after President Joe Biden dropped out following a tumultuous debate performance that fractured party support. Polls indicated Trump leading Biden in most battleground states prior to the switch, despite Biden’s 2020 victories in six of the seven states.
Harris’ current advantage is within the margin of error across these crucial swing states, underscoring a competitive race as both candidates vie for critical electoral votes heading into the final stretch.
