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A spent SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage weighing nearly 9,000 pounds is expected to crash into the moon early Wednesday. The SpaceX rocket moon crash is predicted for about 1:35 a.m. Central time on Aug. 5.
The unmanned rocket body poses no danger to people on Earth. However, the collision could create a new lunar crater and give scientists a rare opportunity to study an artificial impact.
SpaceX Rocket Moon Crash Expected at High Speed
The discarded upper stage is traveling toward the moon at about 5,400 mph. That is roughly seven times the speed of sound on Earth.
Researchers expect the impact near Einstein Crater, close to the edge of the moon as viewed from Earth. One recent scientific analysis placed the collision between the Bell and Einstein craters.
The timing remains an estimate based on the object’s changing orbit. Current calculations place the impact at approximately 6:35 a.m. UTC, or 1:35 a.m. Central time, according to an observational planning study.
Scientists have produced different estimates for the resulting crater. Some models place its diameter near 90 feet. A newer physical analysis predicts a crater about 130 feet wide, according to research on the object designated 2025-010D.
Rocket Launched Two Lunar Landers in 2025
SpaceX launched the Falcon 9 from Florida on Jan. 15, 2025. Its payload included Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost Mission 1 and the Resilience lunar lander from Japanese company ispace.
Both spacecraft separated successfully from the rocket’s second stage. Blue Ghost later completed a successful moon landing in March 2025. Resilience reached the moon but crashed during its landing attempt in June 2025.
The Falcon 9 stage remained in a long, moon-crossing orbit after releasing the spacecraft. Gravitational forces eventually placed it on an uncontrolled collision course with the lunar surface.
SpaceX did not intentionally direct the stage toward the moon. Experts told the Associated Press that a solar orbit could have prevented the eventual impact.
Will the Lunar Impact Be Visible from Texas?
The moon will remain above the Houston-area horizon at the predicted impact time. It will not set until about 6:29 a.m. Wednesday, according to local moonrise and moonset calculations.
However, the collision is unlikely to create a dramatic sight for observers without professional equipment. The expected flash may last less than one second and could be too dim against the moon’s sunlit surface.
A plume of lunar dust and rock could prove easier to detect. Researchers estimate that ejected material may rise several miles above the surface and remain visible through telescopes for several minutes.
Professional and experienced amateur astronomers have been encouraged to record the event. Cloud cover, atmospheric conditions and telescope size will affect viewing opportunities.
Impact Offers a Scientific Opportunity
The collision could release energy comparable to about three tons of TNT. Despite that force, it will not noticeably affect the moon, its orbit or conditions on Earth.
Natural objects regularly strike the lunar surface. Human-made spacecraft and rocket stages have also hit the moon during planned missions. Scientists value these events because researchers can estimate the object’s mass, speed and impact location beforehand.
Observations could improve models of crater formation and lunar dust movement. The findings may also help researchers understand potential debris risks for future astronauts, equipment and permanent installations on the moon.
The event also highlights concerns about tracking discarded hardware beyond Earth’s immediate orbit. As lunar missions increase, researchers say identifying and monitoring objects in Earth-moon space will become more important.
Texas skywatchers interested in the event can follow updates from professional observatories and space research organizations. Any successful recordings could help scientists understand what happens when a large, hollow rocket stage strikes the lunar surface.