A Fragile Ceasefire Amid Escalating Violence
India and Pakistan agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire on May 10, 2025, after several days of cross-border attacks sparked by an Indian missile strike.
While the truce brought temporary relief, both nations quickly accused each other of violations. The U.S., through Secretary of State Marco Rubio, played a key role in mediating the ceasefire.
Kashmir: A Region in Dispute Since 1947
The heart of the conflict is Kashmir, a region claimed by both countries since they gained independence from British rule. In 1947, the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was given the choice to join either India or Pakistan. Its ruler chose India, a decision Pakistan has never accepted. This sparked a war that ended in 1949 with a UN-monitored ceasefire line, but tensions have never fully subsided.
Today, India controls the southern half of Kashmir, Pakistan controls the north and west, and China holds a portion in the northeast. The region remains one of the most militarized zones in the world.
Nationalism and Religion Add Fuel
Religious and nationalist fervor continue to inflame the conflict. Pakistan, an Islamic republic, often invokes its religious ties to the Muslim-majority region, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi leads a Hindu nationalist government.
“Religion gets injected into the relationship,” said former U.S. State Department official Stephen Ganyard, making the situation volatile.
The Nuclear Threat
Both nations possess nuclear weapons—India has a no-first-use policy, but Pakistan does not. This imbalance, combined with deep-rooted hostility, makes even small provocations risky.
“Of any place in the world, the easiest to imagine a nuclear exchange is between India and Pakistan,” Ganyard warned.
Tourism Disrupted by Violence
Kashmir had seen a rise in tourism and relative calm in recent years. That changed on April 22, 2025, when militants attacked Indian tourists near Pahalgam, killing 26 people. India blamed Pakistan, prompting retaliatory missile strikes. Pakistan, in turn, labeled the attacks acts of war.
Terrorism and Water: Longstanding Flashpoints
India accuses Pakistan of backing terrorist groups in Kashmir—a claim dating back to the 1980s. High-profile attacks in 2008, 2016, and 2019 have kept tensions alive. The April 2025 attack marked a shift by targeting civilians instead of military sites.
Another emerging point of contention is water. After the April attack, India suspended a longstanding Indus River water treaty with Pakistan—an unprecedented move. Restricting river flow could be seen as a direct threat, potentially leading to war.
No Easy Resolution
Despite the ceasefire, lasting peace remains elusive. Inconsistent leadership in Pakistan and deep-rooted hostilities prevent meaningful progress. “Things are never going to be good between these two countries,” Ganyard said, noting the persistent pressures of geography, religion, and territorial claims.
Still, backchannel diplomacy and international mediation have helped de-escalate conflicts in the past. Experts say avoiding full-scale war is in both nations’ best interest—but the danger of miscalculation remains ever-present.
Keep up with more developments on the India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir with us on Que Onda Magazine.
