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Where is the stock market headed in the 2nd half of 2024?

The stock market defied expectations with a strong performance over the first half of 2024. But the success poses a key question for investors: Is there room for stocks to go even higher?

The S&P 500 climbed nearly 15% over the first six months of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed about 4% over that period, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq soared roughly 18%.

Analysts who spoke to ABC News attributed the strong gains to enthusiasm about artificial intelligence as well as resilient economic growth and expectations that interest rates would ease.

But, experts predicted, the stock market will likely struggle to sustain its breakneck growth over the remainder of the year as investors turn away from increasingly high prices and weather uncertainty centered on the economic outlook and the November election.

“It has been a very impressive start to the year,” Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, told ABC news. “But as we look toward the second half, on a short term basis, we think the market is overbought.”

Despite straining under the weight of the highest interest rates in two decades, the U.S. economy has sustained solid growth. Meanwhile, U.S job gains have remained robust, exceeding expectations and driving significant wage increases.

Progress, however, in the fight against inflation has largely stalled. Even so, the Fed has indicated that an additional rate increase is unlikely, instead forecasting one rate cut by the end of 2024.

“The markets have welcomed the fact that we’re likely to see rate cuts,” Turnquist said.

Those wider economic trends have coincided with a burst of investor appetite for tech firms leading the adoption of AI. Major stock indexes drew a bump from investors optimistic about the potential benefits of products like ChatGPT.

Those gains were concentrated primarily in a handful of tech giants, known as the magnificent seven: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Tesla and Nvidia. Even within that group, the gains were enjoyed primarily by a select few.

The stock price of Nvidia — the maker of many computer chips driving AI advances — has climbed nearly 150% since the outset of 2024. Microsoft, which owns a major stake in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, has seen its shares soar more than 20% this year.

“The AI effect has helped market sentiment and deservedly so,” Mike Loukas, CEO of TrueMark Investments, told ABC News. “But a handful of concentrated stocks seem to carry the market at any given time.”

In light of the gangbusters performance at the outset of this year, experts warned that the stock market would likely struggle to sustain the returns. At a basic level, the rise in stock prices that stretches back to last year will eventually reach a point where traders become reluctant to pour in funds at an elevated price tag, the analysts said.

“There needs to be a reset button from these overbought conditions,” Turnquist said.

Even more, the positive trends in the economy face a number of threats. Most notably, the ongoing combination of high interest rates and stubborn inflation could weigh on corporate profits and wear investor patience thin.

“The whole dance — rate cuts or no rate cuts; inflation or no inflation — I think that continues,” Loukas said. “We’re still pretty sensitive as a whole to macroeconomic factors.”

Such economic uncertainty is compounded by a wide range of possible outcomes in the November election, Loukas added.

“The election is going to be a wild variable,” Loukas said. “There’s a lot of uncertainty in what’s happening and the market is still trying to price that in.”

Loukas forecasted growth in the stock market over the remainder of 2024, but he said the pace would fall short of the surge experienced over the first half.

Turnquist, of LPL Financial, echoed that view. The stock market could rise slightly by the end of the year, he said, but companies will weather a more challenging environment.

“There’s still a risk that the battle isn’t over with the Fed,” he added.

Still, Turquist noted, the outlook for the market beyond this year remains favorable. “We’re still in a long-term uptrend,” he said.

Six Flags and Cedar Fair merge into one big company: What to know

Six Flags and Cedar Fair finalized their merger on Monday, creating a massive company valued at around $8 billion. This new entity boasts 42 theme parks, water parks, and resort properties across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico, making it the largest amusement park operator in North America.

Key Details of the Merger

Corporate Name Change The merged entity will operate under the name Six Flags Entertainment Corporation.

Impact on Guests The merger is set to enhance financial flexibility, allowing the company to invest in new rides, attractions, food and beverage options, and advanced consumer technologies. This ensures continuous improvement and innovation for an even more exciting and memorable park visit.

Leadership Structure Richard Zimmerman, the current Cedar Fair President and CEO, will lead the new company as President and CEO. Selim Bassoul, the current Six Flags President and CEO, will become the Executive Chairman of the Board of Directors.

Six Flags Locations Prior to Merger

  • Arizona: Hurricane Harbor Phoenix
  • California: Six Flags Magic Mountain & Hurricane Harbor Los Angeles, Six Flags Discovery Kingdom & Hurricane Harbor Concord
  • Georgia: Six Flags Over Georgia & Six Flags White Water
  • Illinois: Six Flags Great America & Hurricane Harbor Chicago, Hurricane Harbor Rockford
  • Maryland: Six Flags America
  • Massachusetts: Six Flags New England
  • Missouri: Six Flags St. Louis
  • New Jersey: Six Flags Great Adventure & Hurricane Harbor New Jersey, Wild Safari Adventure & Six Flags Savannah Sunset Resort & Spa
  • New York: Six Flags Great Escape, Six Flags Darien Lake & Lodging, Six Flags Great Escape Lodge & Indoor Waterpark
  • Oklahoma: Frontier City & Hurricane Harbor OKC
  • Texas: Six Flags Over Texas & Hurricane Harbor Arlington, Six Flags Fiesta Texas, Hurricane Harbor Splashtown
  • Canada: La Ronde
  • Mexico: Six Flags México & Hurricane Harbor Oaxtepec

Cedar Fair Locations Prior to Merger

  • California: California’s Great America, Knott’s Berry Farm & Knott’s Soak City
  • Michigan: Michigan’s Adventure & Wildwater Adventure
  • Minnesota: Valleyfair & Soak City
  • Missouri: Worlds of Fun & Oceans of Fun
  • North Carolina: Carowinds
  • Ohio: Cedar Point & Cedar Point Shores, Kings Island
  • Pennsylvania: Dorney Park & Wildwater Kingdom
  • Texas: Schlitterbahn New Braunfels, Schlitterbahn Galveston
  • Virginia: Kings Dominion & Soak City
  • Canada: Canada’s Wonderland

Cedar Fair also offered 11 different accommodation options in the U.S., ranging from RV sites to hotels.

Heat Advisory continues Tuesday as we keep a watchful eye on Hurricane Beryl

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HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — We’re in for more near-triple-digit heat Tuesday as we keep a watchful on the future path of Hurricane Beryl. Heat Advisories have been extended until 7 p.m. Tuesday for parts of Southeast Texas, so continue to take your hot weather precautions while outside.

Temperatures Tuesday morning will start off around 80 degrees then rocket up toward 100 by the late afternoon. Heat index values will make it to between 108 to 112 degrees at times.

There is a small 20% chance you’ll encounter an isolated afternoon shower, but most of us will stay dry.

What’s in store for the Fourth of July?

More heat, more humidity! The high humidity will be good enough for a 10% chance of an Independence Day rain shower or thunderstorm. Otherwise, temperatures will be above average around the holiday with high temperatures in the upper 90s, so Heat Advisories could be warranted on the Fourth and for the days around it.

Is any heat relief on the way?

Possibly, but you’ll have to wait until the weekend. The heat dome overhead will shift eastward toward Florida by then, opening the door for a weak front to push into Texas and start increasing our rain chances while also lowering our highs into the mid 90s. That also means we will lose the protection from hurricanes that heat domes over Texas bring us, so we’ll need to keep a watchful eye on Hurricane Beryl.

Is Hurricane Beryl going to impact Texas?

It’s too soon to say whether or not Texas will be impacted by the hurricane, but a pathway toward Texas remains open at this time. If we’re to be impacted by Beryl, it would likely be in the Sunday through Tuesday window early next week. For more information on Beryl and other tropical systems, head to our Daily Tropical Weather Update page.

13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:

Southeast Texas

Houston

Harris County

Galveston County

Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties

Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties

Brazoria/Matagorda Counties

The pandemic’s babies and toddlers are now school-age, and behind

As the pandemic’s babies, toddlers, and preschoolers transition into school-age, the developmental and academic challenges they face are becoming increasingly evident. Many of these children are exhibiting signs of lagging behind their peers in crucial developmental milestones.

Interviews with over two dozen teachers, pediatricians, and early childhood experts reveal that many young children today lack age-appropriate skills such as holding a pencil, communicating needs, identifying shapes and letters, managing emotions, and solving problems with peers.

Scientific studies support these observations, indicating that the pandemic has indeed impacted early childhood development. Research shows that boys have been more affected than girls.

Dr. Jaime Peterson, a pediatrician at Oregon Health and Science University specializing in kindergarten readiness, noted, “Children born during the pandemic have faced unique developmental challenges. The lack of interactions due to mask-wearing, limited exposure to adults, and restricted playtime with peers have significantly impacted their growth.”

While the pandemic’s impact on older children, who lost ground in math and reading due to school closures, is well-documented, the effect on the youngest children is more surprising. These children were not in formal school when the pandemic began and typically spent much of their time at home.

However, early childhood is a critical period for brain development. Researchers highlight that factors such as parental stress, reduced social interactions, lower preschool attendance, increased screen time, and decreased playtime have all played a role in hindering young children’s development.

Despite these challenges, experts believe that young children have a strong capacity to catch up due to their rapidly developing brains. Joel Ryan, associated with a network of Head Start and state preschool centers in Washington state, described these children as a “pandemic tsunami” approaching the American education system, noting increases in speech delays and behavioral issues.

Not all children are showing delays, though. Data from Curriculum Associates, which will be released soon, indicates that children in schools predominantly serving Black, Hispanic, or low-income families are the most behind. Conversely, students from higher-income families are more in line with historical trends.

Kristen Huff, vice president for assessment and research at Curriculum Associates, stated, “Most, if not all, young students were impacted academically to some degree.”

Experts assert that recovery is possible, although young children have not been the primary focus of the $122 billion in federal aid allocated to help students recover. Catherine Monk, a clinical psychologist and professor at Columbia University, emphasized the need for equitable distribution of services to support recovery.

The differences in developmental progress are stark. Brook Allen, a kindergarten teacher in Martin, Tennessee, reported unprecedented challenges such as students with limited speech, toilet training issues, and undeveloped fine motor skills. Michaela Frederick, a pre-K teacher for students with learning delays, noted a decline in imaginative play and social interactions among children.

Lissa O’Rourke, a preschool teacher in St. Augustine, Florida, observed significant emotional regulation issues among her students, with behaviors such as knocking over chairs and hitting peers and teachers becoming more common.

Curriculum Associates’ data show that children who recently completed second grade, having been as young as 3 or 4 when the pandemic began, are still behind their pre-pandemic peers, particularly in math. The most concerning finding is that the students who are furthest behind are making the least progress in catching up.

Cincinnati Public Schools’ data reflect this trend, with only 28% of kindergarten students starting the school year prepared, down from 36% before the pandemic.

Childhood development experts attribute young children’s struggles partly to parental stress during the pandemic. Increased stress can lead to heightened brain activity in areas focusing on fear and aggression, leaving less energy for language, exploration, and learning.

During lockdowns, children had fewer opportunities to overhear adult interactions and play with peers, further hindering their development. Preschool attendance, crucial for kindergarten readiness, remains below pre-pandemic levels in many states, particularly among low-income families.

The increase in screen time during the pandemic, as parents balanced work and childcare, has also been linked to developmental delays. Heidi Tringali, a pediatric occupational therapist, noted an increase in issues such as visual problems, social skills deficits, and reduced core strength among children.

Despite these challenges, researchers remain optimistic about the potential for young children to catch up, emphasizing the importance of early intervention. Dr. Dani Dumitriu, a pediatrician and neuroscientist, stated, “It is absolutely possible to catch up if we catch things early.”

Some areas have initiated programs to support young children, such as a Tennessee district doubling the number of teaching assistants in kindergarten and adding a preschool class for students needing extra support. Oregon has also used federal aid to start a kindergarten preparation program.

Preschool teacher Sarrah Hovis from Roseville, Michigan, has witnessed both the challenges and progress in her classroom. While some children struggle with basic tasks like opening a bag of chips, others are showing significant academic progress by the end of the school year.

The key, Hovis said, is consistent attendance: “If the kids come to school, they do learn.”

This story was originally published at nytimes.com. Read it here.

U.S. Supreme Court grants partial immunity to Trump in landmark ruling

The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that former President Donald Trump cannot be prosecuted for official actions taken while in office but can face charges for private acts.

This decision, marking the first recognition of any form of presidential immunity from prosecution, came in a 6-3 ruling led by Chief Justice John Roberts.

The ruling overturns a lower court’s decision that denied Trump’s claim of immunity related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. The six conservative justices formed the majority, while the three liberal justices dissented. Chief Justice Roberts stated that the constitutional structure necessitates some immunity for former presidents for their official acts, especially those tied to their core constitutional powers.

Trump celebrated the decision on social media, calling it a victory for the Constitution and democracy. The case will return to lower courts to determine if Trump has immunity for other actions, including pressuring Vice President Mike Pence and assembling fake electors. This landmark decision is the first to grant former presidents immunity in any capacity.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, along with Justices Elena Kagan and Ketanji Brown Jackson, sharply dissented, arguing the ruling undermines the principle that no one is above the law. She criticized the majority for granting Trump broader immunity than requested, potentially reshaping the presidency.

Trump is currently running against President Joe Biden in the upcoming November 2024 election. This Supreme Court decision was made on the last day of its term and addressed Trump’s appeal against a lower court’s rejection of his immunity claim. Trump, the first former president to face criminal prosecution, was previously convicted of falsifying documents and faces other criminal charges.

Legal experts like Rick Hasen believe the ruling favors the president’s immunity, likely delaying any trial past the election. The court’s conservative majority includes three justices appointed by Trump. Special Counsel Jack Smith’s indictment of Trump includes charges of election subversion, which Trump has pleaded not guilty to. Trump’s legal team argued for absolute immunity to protect future presidents from potential prosecution threats by political opponents.

Justice Sotomayor emphasized that such immunity could shield presidents from accountability for severe crimes, a stance that the majority dismissed. A May poll showed limited public support for presidential immunity without impeachment.

Despite Special Counsel Smith’s request for a fast-track review, the Supreme Court’s prolonged deliberation has delayed proceedings, making a pre-election trial unlikely. Trump continues to face multiple charges and legal battles as he campaigns for the presidency.

Houston gymnasts to represent Team USA in 2024 Olympics

Minneapolis – A few Houston area gymnasts will represent Team USA in the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. It was an exhilarating week in Minneapolis as Texas showed up and showed off.

In total, four gymnasts from Texas are headed to Paris to represent Team USA.

The men’s team will consist of Fred Richard, Brody Malone, Paul Juda, Asher Hong, and Stephen Nedoroscik. The two traveling alternates are Khoi Young and Shane Wiskus.

Simone Biles was an automatic inclusion on the women’s team as she placed first in the competition. Joining Simone are Conroe’s Jordan Chiles, Suni Lee, Jade Carey, and Hezly Rivera. The traveling alternates are Texas’ own Joscelyn Roberson and Leanne Wong.

Supreme Court to rule on Trump prosecution immunity

The Supreme Court is set to issue a major ruling on Monday on whether former President Trump is immune from prosecution for acts committed while he was in office.

Why it matters

The court’s highly anticipated decision will determine whether Trump’s federal January 6 case will proceed and potentially head to trial before the November election. The Supreme Court has delayed its ruling until Monday, the last day of its current term.

The big picture

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments in April over Trump’s assertion that ex-presidents cannot be prosecuted for crimes committed while in office. Trump’s legal team has argued that his actions before the 2020 presidential election fell within the “outer perimeter” of the president’s official duties. They contend that denying Trump blanket immunity could restrict future presidents out of fear of criminal prosecution after leaving office.

Zoom in

During the arguments, the nation’s high court appeared poised to rule that former presidents have some immunity, but not the “absolute immunity” that Trump is seeking, according to Axios’ Sam Baker. Even if the Justices rule against Trump, a trial would likely not begin before September, per NBC News. The trial had originally been scheduled for earlier this year but was postponed indefinitely.

State of play

Trump, who was convicted on 34 felony counts in his New York hush money trial in May, has repeatedly sought to delay his three other criminal cases. If he wins back the White House in November, he could order the Justice Department to drop his federal charges.

DOJ to present Boeing with plea deal that families of 2018, 2019 crash victims say falls short

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The Department of Justice is preparing to present the Boeing Company a plea deal that would again allow the aerospace giant to avoid a trial over an alleged conspiracy to defraud the United States, according to attorneys for families of victims of two fatal Boeing 737 Max crashes who were briefed on the department’s plans Sunday afternoon.

Under the proposed deal, Boeing would be required to enter a guilty plea to the conspiracy charge, which was first filed January 2021, for allegedly misleading the FAA during its evaluation of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft. The company must also agree to the appointment of an external corporate monitor, pay a fine of about $200 million and remain on probation for three years, according to lawyers for the families.

During the briefing with the DOJ, family members of the crash victims expressed dissatisfaction with the proposal, according to attorneys representing the families. The families contend that the deal contains no accountability and no admission that Boeing’s alleged conspiracy caused the deaths of 346 people who were killed in the two Max crashes in 2018 and 2019. The victims’ families have been pushing DOJ to take the company to trial and to impose fines upwards of $20 billion.

“The Justice Department is preparing to offer to Boeing another sweetheart plea deal,” wrote attorneys Robert Clifford and Paul Cassell in a statement. “The deal will not acknowledge, in any way, that Boeing’s crime killed 346 people. It also appears to rest on the idea that Boeing did not harm any victim. The families will strenuously object to this plea deal. Judge [Reed] O’Connor [of the Northern District of Texas] will have to decide whether this no-accountability-deal is in the public interest. Indeed, he will have to decide whether to approve [an agreement] that ties his hands at sentencing and prevents him from imposing any additional punishment or remedial measures. The memory of 346 innocents killed by Boeing demands more justice than this.”

Houston Airport System advises early arrival and advance parking as 1.9M people travel for holiday

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HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — A lot of people are flying these days and TSA expects to screen 32 million of them from June 27 through July 8.

Houston Airport System officials are expecting 1.9 million passengers to travel through Houston during that stretch.

They say that’s an 8% increase from the same period in 2023, and the number includes passengers traveling through both George Bush Intercontinental (IAH) and William H. Hobby (HOU) airports.

Things are running smoothly at Hobby according to Houston Airport System Chief Operating Officer Kelly Woodward.

“Hobby’s business as usual,” Woodward said while adding that passengers should arrive two hours before their flight.

Passengers at IAH had mixed reviews of how things were going on Sunday.

Pritam Dhavale wasn’t impressed while preparing to head back to Florida.

“The experience was not very great,” he said.

Eboni Jones said she didn’t have issues as she prepared to return to Virginia.

“It’s pretty good for us,” Jones said.

Passengers have complained about getting around IAH in recent years due to multiple construction projects, but Woodward said they’ve paused those for the holiday.

Woodward also told ABC13 they’ve added personnel to help direct traffic around the various terminals.

One date to remember if you’re traveling through IAH is July 3.

That’s not only the day before Independence Day, but also the day before Lionel Messi and Argentina play in the Copa America soccer tournament at NRG Stadium.

“What we’re seeing is not only an increase in domestic passengers but an uptick in international passengers,” said Woodward.

The Houston Airport System said they expect 160,000 passengers to come through IAH on July 3.

They also said that one of their main hopes during this busy time is that cars don’t circle the airport.

Woodward asked that people flying into IAH wait to order a Lyft or Uber until they’re physically at their pick-up spot, as opposed to ordering one while waiting in baggage claim.

Houstonians picking up fliers at IAH are encouraged to wait for them in a cell phone lot until their passengers are outside of their terminal.

One other piece of advice from airport officials is to purchase parking in advance to guarantee a spot closest to either airport.

That can be done at Fly2Houston.com/Parking.

Majority of voters think it’s time for Biden to step aside

What’s going on:

A new CBS poll reveals increasing concerns about President Biden’s reelection bid. Following last week’s debate, a growing number of voters believe he should not seek another term. The poll indicates that 63% of registered voters think the 81-year-old president should not run for reelection. Moreover, an even larger percentage question his cognitive health to serve another term. In contrast, only half of the electorate believes former President Trump has the cognitive fitness to be president. With just over four months until the election, at least three major media outlets have urged President Biden to step aside. In response, Biden’s campaign has pushed back, stating in a fundraising email that such a move would result in “weeks of chaos” and place Democrats on a “highway to losing.”

What it means:

The Democratic National Convention (DNC) is scheduled to formally select the party’s nominee near the end of August, leaving nearly two months to develop a strategy. Although Biden has more than enough delegates to secure the nomination, DNC rules allow the party to potentially force him out of the race, though this remains highly unlikely. If Biden decides to withdraw, all 3,894 of his pledged delegates would become uncommitted, leading to a potential scramble within the party. However, Biden’s campaign has not shown any indication that he plans to drop out of the race.