Texas Could Face Extreme Cold Event Similar to Winter Storm Uri
This winter, Texas may experience extreme cold comparable to Winter Storm Uri, which caused the state’s power grid to collapse in February 2021. According to a recent analysis by ERCOT (Electric Reliability Council of Texas), there is an 80% chance of rolling blackouts if Texas faces a storm on par with Uri.
During a December 3 presentation to ERCOT’s board of directors, Chris Coleman, ERCOT’s supervisor of operational forecasting, warned that Texas is in a weather pattern that could support such an event. While this winter is expected to be warmer overall, Coleman noted an increased likelihood of cold extremes.
“I don’t have a specific probability to give, but I’d compare this to a ‘cold extreme watch,’ like a tornado watch,” Coleman said. “Whether it impacts Texas, the East Coast, or Central Asia is still uncertain.”
ERCOT’s Preparedness and Risks
ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas acknowledged a slightly higher risk of grid issues this winter due to increasing power demand. The grid recorded a peak winter demand of 78,349 megawatts in January, driven by population growth and other factors.
In a report released in November, ERCOT projected a nearly 50% chance of rolling blackouts if Texas experienced December 2022-like conditions and an 80% chance if a storm like Uri struck. However, Vegas emphasized that the grid has improved significantly since 2021, thanks to a weatherization program and nearly 3,000 inspections conducted over the past three years.
“We’ve made significant changes to lower the risk profile of the ERCOT grid, especially in winter,” Vegas said. “Still, outages can occur due to mechanical failures or other factors unrelated to weatherization.”
Lessons from Winter Storm Uri
Winter Storm Uri claimed 246 lives across Texas, making it one of the deadliest natural disasters in the state’s history. The storm overwhelmed the power grid, leaving millions without electricity or water in freezing temperatures. Bexar County recorded the fourth-highest fatality rate in the state.
Coleman reiterated that even during mild winters, periods of extreme cold can occur. “The more I analyze this winter, the more cold potential I see,” he said. “It’s like a tornado watch—it doesn’t guarantee a storm but highlights the need for vigilance.”
Looking Ahead
ERCOT officials are urging Texans to stay prepared for potential extreme weather events this winter. While the grid has improved, the possibility of blackouts remains if a storm similar to Uri occurs.
