August 5 7 a.m.
Debby makes landfall along the Big Bend of Florida early Monday morning. From there, it will turn northeast and may emerge in the Atlantic just off the Georgia and South Carolina coast late Tuesday into Wednesday. It is also possible Debby could stall out along the Carolina coast, which could lead to a risk for major flooding. From Thursday and beyond, there is quite a bit of model disagreement with Debby’s track.
We are also monitoring a tropical wave approaching the Windward Islands that has a 30% chance of forming once it makes it’s way into the southern Caribbean later this week.
August 4 10 p.m.
Debby continues to rapidly strengthen tonight, now a hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph and gusts up to 90 mph. Debby is closing in Florida and will make landfall along Florida’s Big Bend region Monday morning as a category one hurricane. A life-threatening storm surge is expected there along the coast as well as hurricane force winds. The surge could reach up to 10 feet in spots. Then the storm will slowly track across northern Florida, southern Georgia and into South Carolina, bringing tropical storm force winds and flooding rains. The amount of rain that could fall over the course of several days in this region could lead to “significant and catastrophic flash flooding.”
Elsewhere, a tropical wave currently east of the Windward Islands has 30% chance of forming once it makes it’s way into the southern Caribbean this week. This is a typical track storms can make in the month of August and it will have some favorable conditions for development, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on this wave throughout the week.
And in the Pacific, it’s much more active with Tropical Storms Carlotta, Daniel, Potential Storm Five and another wave that will likely become a storm this week.
August 4 8 a.m.
Tropical Storm Debby remains on track to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend region on Monday, likely strengthening to a hurricane ahead of landfall. Debby is then expected to cross over Florida and slow it’s foreword movement off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina. Flooding rains of over a foot are possible for parts of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
While Debby will no impact us here in Texas, we have our eyes on another tropical wave that is attempting to strengthen as it approaches the Caribbean. For now the National Hurricane Center puts the development odds of this system at just 20%, but that number could increase in the coming days. A track like what we’re seeing from this system could eventually bring a system into the Gulf of Mexico, but it’s far too early to know if the storm will form, or where it could end up.
