June 30th 10 p.m. Update
Beryl continues to be a category 4 hurricane with winds of 130 mph and peak wind gusts of 160 mph. The eye of Beryl is 10 nautical miles wide and even has mesovorticies within in, both signs of a healthy and well-formed storm. Beryl will retain it’s category 4 strength as it makes landfall along the Windward Idlands Monday, leading to life-threatening flooding and potentially catastrophic wind damage. As for it’s future track, Beryl is expected to remain a major hurricane as it approaches Jamaica mid-week and then could weaken slightly to either a category one or two storm by the time it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula Friday. Another landfall near Cozumel is possible Friday. Beyond that, it’s difficult to place where this hurricane will be after Friday. the forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center now includes the Bay of Campeche, but there’s still too much uncertainty with the system’s potential track as it would be in the Gulf of Mexico next weekend. In other words, it’s still too early to tell if Beryl will pose a threat to the Texas coast or Houston next weekend. In the meantime, it’s best to begin thinking about an travels plans you might have around the Fourth of July and thereafter, plus what you might need to do locally in Houston if a storm was headed this way.
Behind Beryl, the other tropical wave in it’s wake still has a 70% chance of forming over the next 7 days.
Additionally, we now have Tropical Storm Chris in the Bay of Campeche. This will be another short-lived system as it’s expected to move into Mexico Monday. The main concern is the heavy rains that could lead to flooding and mudslides in Mexico. Chris poses no threat to the Texas coast of Houston.
