Slight Increase in Impact Probability
The newly discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 has drawn global attention as astronomers closely monitor its trajectory.
Recent calculations show a 2.6% chance of impact in 2032, a slight increase from the 2.2% estimate the previous day. However, the probability remains low, and fluctuations in risk assessments are expected as new data becomes available.
NASA and ESA’s Monitoring Efforts
NASA and the European Space Agency are tracking the asteroid using telescopes worldwide. The Webb Space Telescope will observe the asteroid in March 2025 before it becomes temporarily unobservable until 2028.
Size and Potential Impact
Discovered in December 2024 by a telescope in Chile, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet wide. Its impact potential depends on its final size determination:
- Smaller end of the estimate: Any impact would likely be localized, comparable to the Tunguska event in 1908, which flattened miles of forest in Siberia.
- Larger end of the estimate: The consequences could be more severe, prompting further risk assessments.
What Happens Next?
- Astronomers expect the impact probability to fluctuate as more data is gathered.
- Experts, including NASA’s Paul Chodas, emphasize that there is no need for concern, as probabilities are likely to drop to zero.
- If necessary, planetary defense measures, such as asteroid deflection, could be explored. In 2022, NASA successfully altered an asteroid’s orbit using its DART mission.
Final Verdict: No Immediate Threat
While the discovery of 2024 YR4 is a scientific curiosity, it is not a cause for panic. Astronomers remain confident that further observations will likely rule out any impact risk.
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