The first major forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season predicts slightly below-average activity, though experts caution that coastal regions, including Texas, remain vulnerable to dangerous storms.
Researchers at Colorado State University project 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes with winds of at least 111 mph. The outlook falls just below the long-term seasonal average.
Forecasters point to the likely development of El Niño as the primary factor expected to limit storm formation. The climate pattern increases wind shear over the Atlantic, disrupting the organization and strengthening of tropical systems.
Still, experts emphasize that a quieter overall season does not eliminate the risk of a major storm making landfall.
“It only takes one storm to make it an active season for any given area,” researchers noted in their outlook.
For Texas, the forecast includes about a 27% chance of a hurricane tracking near the state and an 11% chance of a major hurricane. While those probabilities are lower than average, they underscore the continued risk along the Gulf Coast.
Meteorologists also warn that unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico could allow storms that do develop to intensify quickly, increasing the potential for rapid strengthening near land.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with peak activity typically occurring between August and October. Additional forecast updates are expected throughout the summer as atmospheric and ocean conditions evolve.
Despite the lower outlook, emergency officials continue to urge residents to prepare early, noting that even a single storm can bring life-threatening storm surge, flooding and wind damage.