The United States experienced negative net migration in 2025 for the first time in at least half a century, according to a new report from the Brookings Institution. Researchers attribute the shift largely to a sharp decline in people entering the country.
Drop in Entries Drives Decline
While the Trump administration intensified immigration enforcement, the report says the negative migration balance was driven mostly by fewer arrivals rather than removals alone. Brookings estimates net migration ranged from a loss of 295,000 people to as few as 10,000 in 2025, with continued losses likely in 2026.
Policy Changes and Enforcement
The study points to a combination of reduced entries, increased enforcement, and voluntary departures. It also cites the suspension of many humanitarian programs, including most refugee admissions, and a decline in temporary visas as major contributors.
Removals Lower Than Claimed
Brookings estimates between 310,000 and 315,000 removals in 2025, slightly higher than 2024 but far below the more than 600,000 removals claimed by the Department of Homeland Security. Most removals last year were initiated by Customs and Border Protection rather than Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the report said.
Economic Impact Expected
Researchers warn the migration loss could weaken economic activity in sectors that rely on immigrant communities. The report projects slower employment and GDP growth, with consumer spending expected to fall by $60 billion to $110 billion across 2025 and 2026.
The authors predict removals will rise in 2026 following new funding under President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which they say will likely expand enforcement staffing and infrastructure.
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