Tropical Storm Beryl forms over Atlantic, predicted to enter Caribbean as Cat 2 hurricane

June 29 Update

Tropical Storm Beryl is poised to become the first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Beryl will impact the Lesser Antilles with hurricane force winds as it enters the Caribbean early next week, and anyone with travel plans in the Caribbean should stay weather aware through the week ahead. While models in the short term are in fairly good agreement about Beryl’s path into the Caribbean, the long-term outlook remains less certain. At this point it is unknown if the system will enter the Gulf of Mexico or continue west in to Central America.

Another tropical wave closer to home in the southwest Gulf has a 40% chance of development, but will move in to Mexico and will not impact Southeast Texas in any way.

June 28 10 p.m. Update

Tropical Depression Two is now Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical watches will more than likely be issued for the Windward Islands on Saturday.

June 28 4 p.m. Update

Tropical Depression Two has formed over the central Atlantic, and the National Hurricane Center predicts it will be a category 2 hurricane as it moves into the Caribbean Sea on Monday. Anyone with plans to vacation in the Caribbean next week should pay close attention to the forecast in the days ahead. It is too soon at this time to know if it will ever impact the Gulf of Mexico, much less Texas, but if it ever were to impact Texas, it would likely be in the July 7th – July 9th window. We’ll keep you posted on its every move in the days ahead.

June 28

The tropics are looking more like late August than late June, with 3 areas of potential development we are currently monitoring. The greatest risk of development comes from Tropical Wave 95-L, which is in the open Atlantic and now has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical depression or named storm. It is likely to become “Beryl” over the next few days, and could end up being our first hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season as it moves in to the Caribbean next week. Beyond that, models are showing a wide spread on where the storm could eventually head.

Close behind 95-L is another tropical wave following in its wake, though the odds for development on that system are at just 20%.

Lastly, closest to home is 94-L, which will be moving into the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. That system will gradually turn into Mexico and will not directly impact Southeast Texas.

June 27 Afternoon Update

Tropical Wave 95-L in the open Atlantic is becoming more organized today. The National Hurricane Center now gives it a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm over the next two days and an 80% chance of doing the same over the next week. Hurricane Hunters are now scheduled to investigate it starting on Sunday. It poses no immediate threat to Texas at this time, but it bears watching for now.

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Southeast Texas