HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — The ABC13 Weather Team has upgraded our Weather Watch to a Weather Alert Day now through Thursday morning.
Current observations indicate the air coming in from the Gulf of Mexico has far more moisture and storm fuel than originally anticipated, increasing the chances for scattered severe thunderstorms with heavy rain this afternoon. Any storm that pops up could produce street flooding along with severe winds, large hail, and a brief tornado.
We are still on track for a line of thunderstorms to blow in overnight from West Texas. How strong this line is when it arrives will depend on how the storms evolve this afternoon. If it storms a lot this afternoon, the line tonight should weaken as it moves in.
A Flood Watch is in effect from 10 p.m. to 7 p.m. for the following counties in the ABC13 viewing area:
Austin, Colorado, Grimes, Liberty, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, Waller, and Washington. Widespread totals of 2-4″ are expected within the watch with isolated amounts in the 5-8″ range.
Where are the storms most likely to hit this afternoon?
Initially, storms will be most favored to develop southwest of Houston toward Matagorda Bay. That’s where the air has the most moisture and storm fuel. We are also seeing signs storms could fire up just east of Houston along the Trinity River closer to a boundary in far East Texas. It is possible Houston could be sandwiched in between two zones of storms and not get much rain out of either.
Where are the storms most likely to hit overnight?
Communities north of I-10 are more favored to get the storms from the line coming in overnight. Once again, how strong those storms get will depending on how much energy is left after the scattered storms that develop this afternoon and evening.
Why is it so stormy?
The weather pattern this week features strong jet stream winds over Texas, which is pushing disturbances through the state that can morph into thunderstorm complexes. These complexes can be difficult to predict more than 12 hours in advance, so stay informed and nimble with your plans this week. Our confidence has grown that one storm complex will rumble through parts of Southeast Texas Thursday morning with another one possible Friday.
Could the storms bring heavy rain or severe weather?
Yes, it is possible that any storm complex that blows through could bring heavy rain and severe weather. The one on Thursday morning could bring gusty winds, hail, a brief tornado, and a few inches of rain. We’ll keep you posted.
Are there any more cool fronts coming ahead of summer?
It no longer looks like we’ll get a front during the first week of May, but there’s still a chance one more cool front could make it down here before the summer heat settles in for good. In fact, next week we see a heat ridge building in that will push our highs into the low 90s for the first time in 2024…stay cool!
13 ALERT RADAR MAPS:
Montgomery/Walker/San Jacinto/Polk/Grimes Counties
Fort Bend/Wharton/Colorado Counties
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