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State	Odds	Implied Probability
Vermont	-5000	98%
Kentucky	-5000	98%
Maine	-800	88.9%
North Carolina	-500	83.3%
Minnesota	+120	45.5%
Texas	+150	40%
Missouri	+190	34.5%
Florida	+650	13.3%
Oklahoma	+850	10.5%
California	+5000	2%

As he begins his campaign for reelection, President Biden faces substantial and multiple challenges, according to a Washington Post-ABC News survey. His overall approval ratings have slipped to a new low, more Americans than not doubt his mental acuity, and his support against leading Republican challengers is far shakier than at this point four years ago.

Former president Donald Trump leads a still-forming field of candidates for the Republican nomination, receiving about twice as much support as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But Trump carries his own baggage, with a majority saying he should face criminal charges in cases involving efforts to overturn the results of the 2020 election, events leading to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol by a pro-Trump mob and his handling of classified documents.

Biden announced his reelection campaign barely two weeks ago with a video highlighting the attack on the Capitol, and he focused on Republican efforts to further restrict abortion access, limit LGBTQ rights, ban books and alter school history curriculums.

Biden’s emphasis on what his campaign calls a freedom agenda was an early indication of his determination to shift voters’ focus away from their reservations about him and instead make the 2024 general election a choice rather than a referendum. Even among fellow Democrats, most say they prefer that their party nominate “someone other than Biden,” a view that has been consistent in polls since before the midterm elections in which Democrats performed far better than expected.

Biden’s overall job approval rating stands at 36 percent, down from 42 percent in February and about the same as the previous low of 37 percent in a Post-ABC poll conducted in early 2022. His disapproval stands at 56 percent, including 47 percent who disapprove “strongly.” Other recent polls have pegged Biden’s approval in the low 40s without a decline in recent months.

Biden’s approval rating is underwater among a slew of groups that supported him by wide margins in 2020. He stands at 26 percent approval among Americans under age 30, 42 percent among non-White adults, 41 percent among urban residents and 46 percent of those with no religious affiliation. Among independents who voted for Biden in 2020, 57 percent approve while 30 percent disapprove. Among independents who voted for Trump, 96 percent disapprove.

Biden’s overall approval ratings, however, are only part of a broader and largely negative assessment of him as a candidate for reelection.

Biden has presided over an economy that has included strong job growth and low unemployment but also high inflation. While inflation has declined in recent months, Americans across party lines continue to express concern about prices and rate the economy negatively overall. Markets remain sluggish in the face of concerns that the Federal Reserve’s efforts to curb inflation will trigger a recession or additional bank failures.

Biden inherited from Trump an economy badly damaged by the coronavirus pandemic, but the public sees the former president as a better economic steward than the incumbent. In the poll, by 54 percent to 36 percent, Americans say Trump did a better job handling the economy when he was president than Biden has done during his presidency so far.

Biden would be 82 at the beginning of a second term and 86 at its end. Republicans have made clear that they will raise questions about his capacities — Trump and others do so regularly — and the president himself has said voters have every right to consider his age as they think about their 2024 choice.

Doubts about how well Biden would perform have risen since he ran in 2020. Today, 63 percent say he does not have the mental sharpness to serve effectively as president, up from 43 percent in 2020 and 54 percent a year ago. A similar 62 percent say Biden is not in good enough physical health to be effective.

Trump, the leading candidate for the GOP nomination, is no youngster. He would be 78 in January 2025 at the time of the next inauguration. But in contrast to Biden, most Americans (54 percent) say he is sufficiently sharp mentally to serve as president and 64 percent say he is physically fit enough to serve.

Neither Biden nor Trump is viewed positively on questions of honesty and trustworthiness, but Trump, who has lied repeatedly in claiming the 2020 election was rife with fraud and therefore stolen, is seen more negatively. Today, 33 percent say Trump is honest and trustworthy while 63 percent say he is not. In comparison, 41 percent say Biden is honest and trustworthy while 54 percent say he is not.

Trump’s numbers on honesty and trustworthiness have varied only marginally since he first became a candidate in 2015. He has never reached even 40 percent positive in Post-ABC polls on this question. Biden, meanwhile, has seen perceptions of his honesty deteriorate. Three years ago, 48 percent said he was honest compared with 45 percent who said he was not.

Another warning sign for Biden and his team comes in hypothetical ballot tests. Throughout the 2020 campaign, Biden generally led Trump in head-to-head pre-election polls — and in November 2020, he won 51 percent of the popular vote to Trump’s 47 percent. Today, Biden is running behind the former president on the question of whom voters prefer for 2024.

When asked who they would support in 2024, 44 percent of voting-age adults say they would “definitely” or “probably” vote for Trump while 38 percent would definitely or probably vote for Biden. The remaining 18 percent are either undecided or gave another answer.

If DeSantis were the Republican nominee, 42 percent today say they would definitely or probably vote for the Florida governor, as 37 percent would back Biden and 21 percent are undecided or chose another option.

The fact that there are so many voters who say they are undecided adds to the unpredictability about the outcome in 2024 and gives one indication of how fiercely fought the coming election will be. Advisers to the main candidates all anticipate that the electoral college result will be determined by votes in half a dozen states.

As expected, Republicans and Democrats remain deeply polarized on their 2024 choice, with 88 percent of Republicans saying they would definitely or probably vote for Trump and 83 percent of Democrats saying they would back Biden.

Among independents, 42 percent say they would definitely or probably back Trump, 34 percent say they are for Biden, and nearly a quarter say they are either undecided, would vote for neither or would not vote at all. Those findings mark a drop-off in support for Biden compared with the 2020 results, when he won independents by nine points, according to a post-election survey of validated voters by the Pew Research Center.

Biden won suburban voters in 2020 with 54 percent of the vote, according to that same Pew study. In the new Post-ABC poll, Trump slightly leads Biden among suburbanites, with Trump at 45 percent and Biden at 39 percent, a difference that is within the poll’s margin of error. Trump has a huge lead among rural voters while Biden has a small lead among urban voters.

Biden leads among non-White voters while Trump leads among White voters. White voters are split depending on levels of education, following a pattern that has existed in recent presidential and congressional elections. Trump does best (60 percent) among White men without college degrees and next best (56 percent) among White women without college degrees. Biden does best (50 percent) with White women who have college degrees. Among White men with college degrees, he and Trump run about even (41 percent to 43 percent).

Among Americans who say Biden lacks the mental sharpness to serve as an effective president, 12 percent nonetheless say they would definitely or probably vote for him against Trump.

Beyond perceptions that he is not honest, Trump has other vulnerabilities with a general-election electorate. The poll finds a 56 percent majority of Americans saying he should face criminal charges in investigations of his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election results. Similarly, 54 percent support charges against Trump for his role in the events leading up to the storming of the Capitol in January 2021 and, separately, for his handling of classified documents after he left office.

Trump was recently charged with 34 felony counts in New York in a case involving hush money paid to an adult film actress, with the former president alleged to have falsified business records to cover up the payment. About half of Americans (49 percent) say this case was brought “appropriately to hold Trump accountable under the law like anyone else,” while 44 percent say it was brought “inappropriately to try to hurt Trump politically.” Trump has pleaded not guilty in the case.

Republicans largely defend Trump, with 82 percent saying the New York case was brought inappropriately to hurt Trump and large majorities of Republicans also standing in opposition to charging Trump in the cases involving efforts to overturn the 2020 election, his role in the Capitol attack and his retention of classified documents. But a majority of independents support criminal charges for Trump on each of these issues.

Still, 26 percent of independents who support charging Trump in any of the three cases say they would definitely or probably vote for him against Biden, while 48 percent back Biden and the rest would support neither, would not vote or are undecided.

Since Trump’s arraignment in New York, some polls measuring the Republican nomination contest have found support for him growing. The Post-ABC poll finds Trump in a strong position against potential GOP rivals at this early stage in that contest.

In an open-ended question that did not offer names of candidates, 43 percent of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents volunteer Trump as their choice for the party’s nomination while 20 percent name DeSantis. All other candidates mentioned by name are at 2 percent or lower. About a quarter of Republicans (27 percent) offer no preference when asked to name a favored candidate.

Combining those responses with a second question naming six candidates, the overall result shows 51 percent supporting Trump and 25 percent backing DeSantis. Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and former vice president Mike Pence each receive 6 percent, while 4 percent support Sen. Tim Scott (S.C.) and 1 percent back former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson.

Three-quarters of Republicans say they would be satisfied with Trump as the Republican nominee (75 percent), while 64 percent say they would be satisfied with DeSantis.

Education and ideology are key dividing lines within the Republican electorate. Trump leads DeSantis by 56 percent to 22 percent among Republicans without college degrees, while college graduates are roughly split between the two at 36 percent for Trump and 33 percent for DeSantis. Haley receives 12 percent support among college graduates compared with 4 percent among those without four-year college degrees.

Among Republicans who call themselves “very conservative” in the primary, 58 percent support Trump, as do 52 percent of those who are “somewhat conservative” and 37 percent who are moderate or liberal. DeSantis’s support is more consistent across these groups (around a quarter), while support for Pence peaks among moderates (11 percent).

The Biden administration is about to shift how migration is handled at the U.S. borders because — once again — Americans have no meaningful immigration legislation from Congress.

Next week the administration will stop using Title 42, the health law imposed during the coronavirus pandemic to control migration at the U.S.-Mexico border. In its place, the administration will revert to Title 8, the nation’s immigration law.

Meanwhile, little is expected from a divided Congress, beyond legislation focused on enforcement and meant more for what was happening on the border a decade ago.

A Colombian migrant who tried to evade U.S. Border Patrol is patted down near the port of entry in Hidalgo, Texas, Thursday, May 4, 2023.

“Congress makes the laws, and they deserve some of the blame here. I don’t expect much from them at this point based on what we’ve seen for the last two decades,” said David Bier, the associate director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank.

President Joe Biden has been readying for the shift with other tools, including setting up processing centers in Guatemala and Colombia where people can apply for asylum before they come to the southern border. The administration also is requiring people to use a computer app to make appointments to request entry. It has turned to U.S. sponsors and focused on reuniting families, provided humanitarian parole to some fleeing Haiti and Latin America and forged agreements with other countries, including Mexico.

“They are relying a little more on processing or allowing people to apply for some form of asylum or humanitarian parole before people get to the border,” said Theresa Cardinal Brown, a senior adviser for immigration and border policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington think tank. “The past administration wouldn’t have done that. It would have just tried to prevent asylum.”

There is a collective breath-holding at the moment about what will follow once Title 42 disappears. What is certain is that politicians will use it as a talking point to cast blame as the transition happens.

But absent any congressional action for decades, immigration policy has largely fallen to the executive branch, leading to inconsistent crisis response policies. Aspects of such policies often are litigated in courts, making them temporary.

Colombian migrants that were trying to evade the U.S. Border Patrol wait to be processed near the port of entry in Hidalgo, Texas

Congress has focused mainly on enforcement, which fails to deal with the fact that the current system of deterrence, designed to stop single adults from Mexico crossing the border illegally, wasn’t built for the wave of asylum-seekers arriving at the border from throughout the world, Cardinal Brown said.

“You can’t rely just on deterrence. You can’t rely on messaging. It’s got to be a fulsome strategy here, and I think what we’ve had for too long is this debate over shut it all down and just stop people from coming in … or everybody deserves a chance to ask and our system can’t. Neither of those is the right answer. It has to be somewhere in between all those things,” she said.

The number of people crossing initially dropped when Title 42 was rolled out. But when it was launched, people had stopped moving globally because of the pandemic, and there were few jobs to be had in the U.S. with everything closed, said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. Within three months, U.S. border arrivals and arrests had returned to pre-Title 42 levels, he said.

More expulsions — and more repeated border crossings

“We had a whole new set of problems at the border that we haven’t seen since before the Great Recession, and those are people repeatedly crossing and getting caught under Title 42 and being returned to Mexico and then trying again,” Alden said.

The problem has been that, unlike Title 8, the regular immigration law, Title 42 doesn’t punish people who repeatedly cross the border.

As a result, more people who have been turned away have crossed again, particularly single adults. In 2019, about 20% of single adults from Mexico and the Northern Triangle had been arrested previously. Under Title 42, nearly half were, according to an analysis Bier published in December.

The number who were detected entering the country illegally but weren’t arrested — known as “gotaways” — grew from 12,500 a month in 2019 to more than 50,000 a month last year, Bier found.

“Title 42 basically prohibits people from requesting asylum in the United States. That’s the teeth of the policy,” Bier said. But because Title 42 blocked people from applying legally to enter the country at ports of entry, the only way to get in was to try to bypass Border Patrol and sneak in. It also didn’t deter those who never intended to seek asylum, he said.

“From a security perspective, it got all the incentives backwards. It created a situation where we’ve never seen this much evasion at the border in the last two decades,” he said.

According to Bier’s analysis of border data, 91% of the people expelled in October were single adults from Mexico and the Northern Triangle countries of Mexico, Honduras and El Salvador.

Bier also found that even though Title 42 targeted those groups, the number of single adults arriving from those countries quadrupled, from an average of 21,000 a month to nearly 80,000 a month.

Some of the most sensational images from the border came in Del Rio, Texas, when hundreds of Haitians were being rounded up by Border Patrol agents on horseback swinging leather reins to force them back across the river. After an outcry, the administration began making exceptions to Title 42 for Haitians, allowing them to request asylum at ports of entry, as had been allowed pre-Title 42.

“When we started to hand out more exceptions to Title 42 at ports of entry for Haitians, the number crossing illegally went way down. We went from 99% [Haitians] crossing illegally to 99% entering legally in an orderly manner,” Bier said. “That’s a huge change from a few months prior, when we had the Del Rio fiasco.”

No ‘consistent’ policies

As with Haitians, the administration has also made exceptions to Title 42 for Venezuelans, Cubans and Nicaraguans, allowing up to 30,000 people a month from the four countries to apply for humanitarian parole, which allows them to work in the U.S. for two years.

But a group of Republican states is in court to try to stop the administration from using the parole program for them. If it succeeds and Title 42 is gone, Mexico is likely to stop taking deportees, “and we will see more of them arriving at the border,” Cardinal Brown said.

“Maybe the principle is the president shouldn’t be able to do this with his parole authority … but I think that’s one of the reasons why the tools that different administrations have are not up to the task,” she said. With executive branch policies stopped or delayed through court action, it’s almost impossible to create policies consistent enough to affect migrant arrivals over a longer period of time, she said.

As the Trump administration did, the Biden administration has been securing “cooperative agreements” with Central and South American countries, exchanging visas for their citizens and helping manage their migration issues — such as helping Colombia with Venezuelan refugees — in exchange for enforcement in places like the treacherous Darien Gap, a geographic region between Colombia and Panama that tens of thousands of migrants cross on treks to the U.S. border.

“What the administration is trying to do is recognize this is a hemispheric issue,” Cardinal Brown said, including cooperative agreements similar to those used by Trump but that are “a little larger in ambition.”

There are enforcement aspects to the post-Title 42 plan. People who cross the border illegally are ineligible to apply for asylum and are deportable.

With Title 8 in place, anyone trying to re-enter after deportation faces fines and jail time and is ineligible to apply to legally enter for three to 10 years.

‘People hate it from both sides’

Alden, of the Council on Foreign Relations, said that given the impossibility of Congress’ doing anything that addresses the current immigration flows, the administration has devised “the most serious plan of any administration to try to deal with asylum.” But he also said there could well be chaos on the border for months given the backlog of people who want to request asylum.

If there is a sense that things are chaotic at the border, support for tougher border measures go up, but if the administration opens up asylum to whomever wants it, political support disappears, he said.

Republicans don’t like the humanitarian parole part and so are challenging it in court, and Democrats dislike the denial of asylum for those who cross illegally, he said.

“I think the Biden administration is trying to walk this line, and it’s the only line that has some plausible hope of working,” Alden said. “As a result, people hate it from both sides.”

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53K41T5T1	53K4261T1	53K42H2T1
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Kentucky: -5000

Vermont: -5000

Maine: -800

North Carolina: -500

Minnesota: +120

Texas: +150

Missouri: +190

Florida: +650

Oklahoma: +850

California: +5000

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