August 12 7 a.m.
Potential Storm Five remains disorganized east of the Lesser Antilles. However, this system is expected to become a tropical storm over the next day or two, and would then be named “Ernesto”. Flooding rain, strong winds and storm surge will cross the Leeward Islands Monday into Tuesday. It is possible the storm strengthens into a hurricane as it tracks near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. After moving away from Puerto Rico, the storm is expected to further intensify east of the Bahamas, becoming at least a Category 2 hurricane as it then tracks northward towards Bermuda.
August 11 4 p.m.
The tropical wave in the Atlantic has now become Potential Storm Five this afternoon. This disturbance is still hundreds of miles away from the Caribbean but is expected to form and become likely Tropical Storm Ernesto early this week as it approaches the Leeward Islands. Potential Storm Five could then impact Puerto Rico as a tropical storm or hurricane before turning north towards Bermuda later this week. So as of now, this storm poses no threat to Houston. However, some outlying model guidance has the system tracking further west into the Caribbean, so we’ll be keeping a close eye on Potential Storm Five, soon-to-be Ernesto, as it interacts with the islands this week.
August 11 10 a.m.
We are continuing to monitor a tropical wave in the Atlantic that will likely be “Ernesto” by midweek. While development odds are up to 90%, models have been in good agreement that the storm will curve north before ever reaching the Gulf of Mexico. We’ll continue to watch it, and any other potential storms, but for now there are no immediate concerns on our radar in SE Texas.
