A new United Nations report warns that the planet remains on course to exceed the temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement, despite modest progress since last year.
Global Warming Could Reach 2.3–2.5°C
If countries meet their current national climate pledges, global temperatures are projected to rise between 2.3°C and 2.5°C (4.14–4.5°F) above preindustrial levels. That’s a slight improvement from last year’s estimate of 2.6–2.8°C but still well above the Paris goal of limiting warming to 2°C.
If nations only follow their existing policies — which often fall short of their stated goals — the report projects an even steeper rise of 2.8°C (5.04°F). The warming figures reflect global averages, meaning land areas could experience even greater temperature increases.
U.S. Withdrawal Expected to Raise Estimates
The report also notes that the Trump administration’s formal withdrawal from the Paris Agreement will take effect next year, raising the global temperature estimate by about 0.1°C (0.18°F). The U.S. State Department said it “does not support” the UN’s findings, reiterating that environmental agreements should not “unduly or unfairly burden the United States.”
Global Stakes Remain High
Scientists warn that exceeding the Paris targets could lead to increasingly severe droughts, floods, and heat waves worldwide. While the report reflects some progress in emissions planning, it concludes that current commitments still fall short of what’s needed to prevent the worst impacts of climate change.
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